Of course, Wainwright and the Cardinals gave it the nothing to see here treatment. DUNEDIN., Fla. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the spring training game against Tampa Bay with right knee discomfort. His career just does not stack up to that level. But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. . Decade-plus Eagles writer. Flahertys exhibition-season debut was supposed to happen Saturday, but now the assignment has been switched to Sunday. He entered Thursday 16-7 on. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Sep 14, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Is Adam Wainwright in the Hall of Fame? NeverSober1900. In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. Sabathia has a chance to become the 17th pitcher in history to record 3,000 strikeouts, which would give his candidacy a boost. Even though three different physical problems were cited to explain Wainwrights plummeting velocity and ineffective pitching? Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). Its not like hes been injury-prone; Price has led the league in games started three times and innings pitched twice. We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. 34. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5). He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. He just turned 30 on August 7, and hes already fifth in JAWS and third in peak among center fielders, but this has been largely a lost year due to a right calf strain thats already required the longest recovery time in at least six years. Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. Hes even seen somewhat of a career resurgence after struggling from 2014-2015, he rebounded to lead the AL in strikeouts in 16. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. The best pitcher in MLB? Even 250 wins is a rare accomplishment at this point. Of the four active starters who are within hailing distance of the JAWS standard (61.1), none has done more to help himself in 2021 than Scherzer, who has been stellar in his age-36 season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 146 innings for the Nationals and Dodgers. Twenty-eight are enshrined in Cooperstown everyone except Wainwright and his fellow active hurlers Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the latter trio of whom are expected to glide in Cooperstown, as well as Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown and Vida Blue. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. DRS changes, injuries, and the shortened season have dealt the slugging third basemans case a set of blows in recent years, making it even harder to overcome his late start. Hall of Very Good. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onSt. Louis Cardinals and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. Will this happen? This year he was so good that he accrued 5.1 WAR (including 0.6 on the offensive side) in his 15 starts before going down, his fourth-highest total. Were not concerned. He has put together a solid career, posting a 193-114 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.208 WHiP over his 2538.2 innings . It is possible that he ends up as one of those players who hangs around the ballot for his decade of eligibility, getting a boost because of his time in St. Loius, but the only way he ends up in Cooperstown will be with a ticket. Perhaps his national profile and general likability increases due to his seemingly inevitable second act as a broadcasterWainwright received rave reviews as a postseason broadcaster last yearand this media visibility helps him in a media-driven contest such as Hall of Fame balloting. Price (155 wins) is the only active pitcher within 30 wins of Wainwright, with Cueto (135) and Bumgarner (127) much further behind. Strikeouts are booming like never before. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. He has led the league in strikeouts three times, including a 300-strikeout season in 2018. Even if he does that, hes well short of the JAWS standard or even the 55.7 career WAR of David Ortiz, plus he has the stigma of his 2013 PED suspension to overcome. Astros @ Cardinals. Actually, it's two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. Wainos going to do that whether hes here or not, and thats a trust thing that Im not concerned with.. David Price is older than he seems; hes already 32 in a few months with just 122 career wins. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. If hes still got the stuff and durability to get to 3,000, the rest of the numbers might fall into place. The Cardinals are calm. It may rile up some traditionalists who are married to the idea pitchers must win 300 games and strike out 3,000 batters to be considered Hall-worthy. He went from having a 3.8 WAR in 2021 to 2.8 WAR last year. I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. Adam Wainwright in 2021 His lifetime ERA is 3.35 and has dropped nearly a tenth of a point over the last two seasons. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. Its a shame because he was off to a great start to his season, with 1.9 WAR and a 195 OPS+ in just 36 games. And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated. Hell need more to get his name in the HOF conversation, namely multiple Cy Young award victories and a pivotal role in a Boston World Series championship. Greinke has won an ERA title in each league. When he calls it a career, Wainwright won't be a serious contender for baseball's Hall of Fame, unlike Molina. In the spirit of giving my readers what they want, heres a lightning round, where Ill keep things uncharacteristically brief. . Still, Hernandez has quite a resume over the last decade hes been named to six All-Star teams, won 156 games for a perennially-losing franchise that hasnt sniffed the postseason, and hes won a Cy Young award to go with multiple ERA titles. Still, his 2.60 ERA is his lowest since 2017, and his strikeout rate is a solid 29.8%. His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. Adam Wainwright, however, is a little bit trickier. . 2000-2023 Rogers Media. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. King Felix is still just 31 years old, despite close to 2,500 innings on his right arm. He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. ago. Look at that. There are some people that feel Wainwright will join his legendary teammates in Cooperstown at some point in time, a trio of Hall of Famers all departing the Cardinals at the same time. His sinker averaged 84.9 mph, a 3.7 percent decrease from 2022. . To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. It hasnt moved him very far in the JAWS rankings, but hes nonetheless seventh among active pitchers behind Greinke, the injured Justin Verlander (60.8), Kershaw, Scherzer, and two other pitchers whove effectively taken zeroes in 2020 and 21, Cole Hamels (48.4) and Flix Hernndez (44.3). Can Adam Wainwright join St. Louis Cardinals teammates in Hall of Fame? But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. (Beltran) was frozen on an 0-2 Adam Wainwright curveball with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th. But is it a Hall of Fame caliber career? Terms of Service. PITTSBURGH, PA - AUGUST 28: Adam Wainwright #50 of, the St. Louis Cardinals applauds after a defensive play by Nolan Arenado #28 in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 28, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Theyll defer. He's a hell of a pitcher and even better human being. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. Even if he is able to reach the 200 win threshold, will Wainwright find himself enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame? Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. Adam Wainwright biography. But over the last three seasons, Jack has pitched only 154 innings. For this dispatch, Ill first turn my attention to the pitchers, then backtrack to cover a handful of others position players and pitchers in a more lightning-round fashion. Hes undergone Tommy John surgery, and his career total of 76 wins is underwhelming. Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. Clayton Kershaw is this generations Sandy Koufax; he could retire right now and hed make the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. But, while neither was young, per se, by baseball standards (it was deGroms age-30 season and Scherzers age-33), there is a big leap to get to Adam Wainwrights age-40 season which looms ahead. However, their overall record forced the Cards to play a Wild Card series against Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies. He had one brother, Trey, who was seven years his senior. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. Molina should make the Baseball Hall of Fame while Wainwright will probably fall short, but even so, we need to enjoy the final season with the longtime battery mates on the . It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. Even if he retired now, Verlander has likely done enough to ensure a plaque in Cooperstown. Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. It happens a lot. Ad Choices Adam Wainwright has a big decision to make this offseason. Wainwright is one of 39 pitchers to record at least 180 wins, 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.40 or lower while making at least 350 starts and throwing at least 2,300 innings. What injury? Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day, The 2022 St. Louis Cardinals and the next generational passage St. Louis Bullpen. How many times have we heard a version of this spin when a St. Louis pitcher has some discomfort or just needs a little time to build himself up in spring training? Im far less convinced he deserves that, but using FanGraphs framing-inclusive WAR for catchers (supplemented by Baseball Prospectus pre-2008 framing data), its clear that he deserves a boost beyond off-the-shelf JAWS. But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Its only the normal spring-training grind, building up arm strength, minor inflammation, no reason to think hell have to go on the IL, our trainers feel good about it. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe and Mastodon @jay_jaffe. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. MILWAUKEE -- Adam Wainwright joined Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Uras in the fourth inning Thursday. Adam Wainwright on Baseball Reference.. He was hit hard four balls hit off him registered exit velocities higher than 104 mph, including a 112.1 mph solo moonshot of a homer off the bat of Jos Abreu. . The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. That includes 2020, a season shortened by the pandemic. He answers the tough question on if his legacy is enough to get him into the MLB Hall of Fame alongside the all-time greats.Follow all our social media channels for more content!https://twitter.com/FoulTerritoryTVhttps://www.instagram.com/foulterritoryshow/https://www.tiktok.com/@foulterritoryshowhttps://www.facebook.com/FoulTerritoryShowhttps://www.twitch.tv/foulterritoryshow However, the future Cardinals Hall of Famer is coming off a 2022 season in which he lost velocity, suffered a decline in swing . Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. But if youd told me four years ago when his career looked absolutely left for dead that I would even half-heartedly entertain the notion, I would have doubted that even more. What a career Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina have shared together! Adam Wainwright is one of the more curious pitchers in baseball, and a recent thread raised a couple questions to me. All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball Net and Spotrac. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. As a result, Ive chosen not to include him on this article. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. For starters, no pitcher can stay that good for that long. Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. The ageless Bartolo Colon leads all active pitchers with 235, CC Sabathia is next at 230, and then its down to John Lackey at 180. Velocity? What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. Hes still going strong, as hes tops in the NL in wins (8) in 2017. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) sits in the dugout during the second inning of a baseball game between the Cardinals and the Pirates on Thursday, April, 7, 2022, at. His draft stock suggests he has the ability to be a top-tier pitcher, but as of now, hes not on a Cooperstown track. Just to be clear, its not an injury deal; its about him not syncing his body up correctly, and he didnt feel like he was getting the leg drive he typically gets, Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said. Sales efficiency numbers are superb he has a 2.99 career ERA, a 1.054 WHIP, a 4.96 K:BB ratio, and hes working on five straight All-Star trips. While wins arent everything, Ive chosen to list them chronologically by career win total as a benchmark of evaluation. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. I try to stay out of it as much as possible.. The bad news is that hell finish his age-35 season still short of 1,200 hits (hes at 1,156), meaning that hed have to average at least 160 a total he hasnt reached since 2016 through his age-40 season just to reach the all-important 2,000. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. Adam Wainwright will return for his 19th season with the. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. Yadier Molina, though certainly less overwhelming of a candidate than Pujols, is probably going to make it inparticularly with the modern embrace of pitch framing, Molinas defensive reputation has only improved, and his high longevity and peak scores by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (which, unlike Baseball Reference, incorporates framing), are well within the normal catcher standards for Cooperstown, even if the rank-and-file voter bestows his candidacy with fewer goat emojis and general fawning than St. Louis does. He threw two no-hitters in the same season and tied the major league record with 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning game. Hell get some work in between now and then, and hopefully that will get him on track. But Wainwright still had good value because he supplied 192 innings. Sometimes a little spring-training soreness is nothing more than a little spring-training soreness. There is a trio of starting pitchers not yet Hall-eligible who rank somewhere between Gooden and WainwrightFlix Hernndez, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. Ive lost track. Its an impressive resume, and one that has him as a top-10 starting pitcher of the last decade, but its just not enough for Cooperstown. Nelson Cruz, right field (42.2 career | 30.1 Peak | 36.1 JAWS, +1.3 JAWS). A two-homer, two-walk game on Wednesday added half a win to whats now his seventh-best season (4.5 WAR); with a big finish, he can approach the peak standard (42.7 WAR). But lets see: frequently injured pitcher, already off schedule in spring training, not quite prepared for a full-on pitching test. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. The Hall of Stats was built by Adam Darowski, Jeffrey Chupp, and Michael Berkowitz.Follow the Hall of Stats on Twitter or Facebook.The Hall of Stats is open sourced on GitHub.All data is also open and available as a free download. Only Price (2018) and Bumgarner (2019) have pitched enough to qualify for an ERA title once since the 2017 season. His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. Rile people up.. Hes never pitched for a World Series champion, and his career postseason statistics wont help him hes 2-8 with a 5.54 ERA, and hes gotten completely shelled on multiple occasions. As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. Focusing on what hes better at: Scherzer is just 19 strikeouts away from 3,000 and should reach the milestone this month, surpassing the likes of Juan Marichal, Roy Halladay, and Bob Feller on the JAWS leaderboard. The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. 82-53, 2.99 ERA, 1,380 strikeouts, 138 adjusted ERA. We use cookies to improve your experience. Cardinals' Wainwright reaches 2,000 career K's. Its Wainwrights final MLB season before retirement, and (mostly) anything goes. I took a look at 10 active starting pitchers with borderline Hall of Fame resumes and broke down their odds of enshrinement. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. At age 33, hes signed for another four years after this campaign, so he should have sufficient time to make a run at 3,000 strikeouts and another Cy Young award. While it seems impossible to envision it now, Wainwright was not always a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). Were just giving him a little extra time in between appearances to rebound from his first time out. Although Gooden was one-and-done when he reached the ballot in 2006, his extraordinary peak meant he probably deserved more of a look. Please logout and login again. The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. Were not sure if hell be ready by Opening Day, but at this point our priority is to take care of this now so we can have him available for virtually the entire season. During the 2022 regular season, 'Waino' finished with a record of 11-12 and 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings, while also racking up 143 strikeouts. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. A Hall of Fame-bound pitcher is slated to take the mound in the top of the first inning of tonights NL wild card game. Injuries have me dubious that Chris Sale will ever accumulate the WAR necessary to reach the Cooperstown threshold, but hes only barely going to be 33 come Opening Day, so Im not closing the book just yet. While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there.
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