This contest was more important than nearly any other as it asserted the AFL's legitimacy as a league and proved it could contend with the NFL year in and year out. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). New England Patriots +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), If Bill Belichick can figure out his QB, the Patriots are going to be extremely dangerous. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. There was a reason the Colts were heavily favored going into the big game: The Jets were not all that good. Sure the game was over by the end of the second quarter, but watching Steve Young (six touchdown passes) and Jerry Rice (three touchdown receptions) tear up the Chargers was a joy to watch. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady & Co. are projected to be the No. Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. Seriously, I get the Super Bowl is one of the worst in history, but this team was really great with an underappreciated defense. Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. Who do you think was the best team to not win a Super Bowl. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months. WebAbout Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. San Francisco finished the regular season at just 10-6, and the leading receiver was none other than Roger Craig. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. Denver got out to a 10-0 lead before Washington dropped a Super Bowl-record 35 points in the second quarter on the Broncos defense. Brady and Belichick established the Patriots as a dynasty with their third Lombardi in four years. Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine. The defense ranked just 24th in the league that year, and a questionable call known as the "Tuck Rule" against the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl when many believed they did not belong. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. 1: 3: 17: 313: 305: 40.0: The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. What Allen accomplished in 2020 was MVP-caliber, even if he didn't take home the league's highest individual honor. Peyton Manning winning his second ring bumps this one up a few spots. Two good-but-not-great teams playing an uncompetitive game with an unforgettable MVP? Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. That they have to play each other twice and are vying for the same divisional crown are limiting factors when it comes to win total and a chance to earn the coveted top seed in the AFC. The defense got a huge boost with the signing of Haason Reddick and top 10 pick Jaycee Horn, but Carolina still has to deal with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South. If Watson doesn't play in 2021, the Texans will be competing for the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. This was the first of the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in the 90s. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Reeling off 11 straight road wins was impressive, and so was beating the top two seeded teams in the NFC en route to the title game (Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys). Kansas City's middling defense (No. Rookie head coaches and rookie quarterbacks don't typically generate Super Bowl contenders. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football. Brown, setting the stage for Jones to have a huge first season in Tennessee. The Chargers got the last of the three talented quarterbacks from the 2020 draft class, and possibly the best in Justin Herbert -- the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn but hes only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure? The 2005 Steelers are a prime example. Another dynasty toppled by Tom Brady, but the "Legion of Boom" should not be undersold. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings, Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: 1-32 ranking, Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on how much better (or worse) they got this offseason, NFL Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 32 teams for the next three seasons, Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. 31. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. Four of those teams made the playoffs last year and Miami won 10 games. A 142 record with the seventh best defense in points scored against in the league. And yet it was Desmond Howard who took home the MVP award thanks to his game-clinching kickoff return. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. But the rest of the roster is important, too. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. If Atlanta can create holes up front for free agent signing Mike Davis, the Falcons offense may be good enough to carry a defense that needs some work. As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. The game did not feature nearly as dramatic an ending as the rest of the top-10, but it was a game full of Hall of Famers all playing at a high level. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. A special season in Tennessee could be in store. The Lions are the next-most likely team to earn the No. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." The 10 Worst NFL Teams to Ever Win a Super Bowl - Sportscasting FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. This unit -- like the offense -- has the potential to be an elite group. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. That's ridiculous. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. Los Angeles is going to score points this year. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. 12. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. Their defense only gave up 9.5 points per game in a 14-game season. In one of our 20,000 sims, the Eagles took the crown at 5-11-1. The Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have been involved in some of the worst Super Bowls, but so have the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. The Colts have the third worst odds at +15000, while the Texans have the worst overall odds at +30000. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. The game that confirmed Joe Flacco was elite. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. W. 23-20. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. Stroud showed love to Justin Fields when explaining why he doesn't the Bears to draft him: 'That's his team', The Red Sox found a loophole in the MLB shift ban and it stinks for Joey Gallo, Survivor 44: Meet the castaways who will compete for $1 million in Fiji, Mets fans hilariously embraced basketball tactics to confuse players on the pitch clock, The Warriors left Russell Westbrook ridiculously wide open and it worked to perfection, Watch: Man tries feeding bison near Yellowstone; it doesnt go well, 2023 NFL Combine Winners Day 1: Blazing-fast DTs give the Bears plenty to consider, Ranking all 32 NFL teams' helmet logos, from worst to best, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Poor Bengal fans will never watch a 49ers game with a smile (unless they're losing). This game will be decided at quarterback, and the daring superstar who joins Brady as the only quarterback to appear in three Super Bowls in his first six seasons is the pick here. It's all about the schedule. The Patriots dynasty started with a massive upset that ended with a Tom Brady game-winning drive and clutch kick by Adam Vinatieri. 22. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. ", From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division there isnt an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring., 26. Same goes for this one. Although the Rams are FPI's top team of the bunch, San Francisco is actually the favorite here. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). Why? A 124 record and a solid defense? The Doomsday Defense vs. the Orange Crush ended up being a forgettable, one-sided affair. This may not be the worst championship team of all time, but these A smart strategy? The NFC West features three of FPI's top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren't necessarily an easy out, either. A fullback even if it was Hall of Famer Larry Csonka winning MVP tells you just how entertaining this one was. 17. This was actually the closest one they played. Yet I can see the defense making a Washington-type leap, and the offensive weapons are there for whoever wins the starting job. The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. Tennessee's offense is going to have to do most of the work in order to repeat at AFC South champions. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. Brett Favre was brilliant in his only Super Bowl win. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). 14. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys is often considered the worst Super Bowl ever played simply because of the terrible play from both teams. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". Cincinnati Bengals +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Bengals will be improved, but theyre not higher on this list for three reasons:. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. This should have been a great game. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total), One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. The least memorable of the Giants four Super Bowl wins also happened to be their most dominant. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. The Dirty Bird Falcons werent a match for the best team John Elway played on. Trent Dilfer. US residents can opt out of "sales" of personal data. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Dan Marino's lone Super Bowl and this team was his best shot. If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. 1 pick. Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. A 4.47 shuttle is extremely rare. Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. The Browns also have a good defense that improved with the additions of John Johnson III at safety, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at linebacker, Jadeveon Clowney at edge rusher, and Greg Newsome II at cornerback. Let's start in the 1980s, with a team led by Hall of Famers like Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Steve Young For a franchise that was so consistently dominant in the 1980s, the 1988 version of the San Francisco 49ers sure seems mediocre. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. The Dolphins capped off the only perfect season ever, despite Garo Yepremian give us an all-time blooper. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. There's enough depth to get by. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. In fact, he is widely regarded as one of the worst starting quarterbacks to ever win a Super Bowl. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. 9. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. and quarterback rating (112.4). Those questions need to be answered in a division where the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses reside. This game did feature one of the best defenses in NFL history, but watching it dismantle a Kerry Collins-led offense wasnt all that exciting. Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. I did not mean to rhyme there. Chark will help Lawrence out immensely, especially with James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Etienne capable of creating a balanced rushing attack. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, with a 15% chance, followed by the Jets (10%), Jaguars (8%) and Eagles (7%). Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. A great passing defense helped elevate this Vikings team to a 122 record. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. They faced perfection, so how can you be harsh when talking about them? The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. The NFL regular season begins in just days. The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round.. With quarterback Dak Prescott back and the possibility of an offensive line returned to full strength, the Cowboys are the division favorites with a 45% shot to win it. Check out the full strength of schedule rankings here. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. and a dramatic finish. Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. edit: grammar Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. This Super Bowl gave us a bunch of memorable performances. Unfortunately, they lost both starting tackles for the Super Bowl and could not stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beast-mode pass rush. I much prefer the Eagles to maybe sneak into the playoffs, as their only road game this season against a playoff team from last year is at Washington on Jan. 2. Is this a bad thing?No, but it does not exactly make for one of the most dominant championship teams of all time. Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. The Rams are firmly in the mix this year. 25. 1) How is coach Zac Taylor going to go from 6-25-1 to the Super Bowl? Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater.
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